“Decolonialism Monthly”: Update on the War with Iran

Boats in the Strait of Hormuz

On April 7th, the world held its breath as Donald Trump threatened genocidal escalation in the illegal US-Israeli war on Iran, stating: "a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again." Though eventually, the US stepped back from the brink and announced a "ceasefire" with Iran and the beginning of negotiations. A month on, it is clear that this is not a true ceasefire, but rather a lull in the fighting as the US and Israel flounder to secure any meaningful victory and are incapable of admitting defeat. Negotiations have stalled as the US appears unwilling to yield any concessions to Iran. Iran's defensive strategy has delivered the most significant blow to US imperialism since the Vietnam war. The consequences of the US-Israeli aggression are just starting to be realized. Working class people around the world are set to endure economic chaos and widespread misery due to the ruling class's decision to launch this illegal, immoral war.

7 Countries in 5 Years

The US and Israel have long sought to destroy Iran for daring to overthrow the Shah, a Western-backed puppet ruler, and seeking sovereignty and self-determination. General Wesley Clark, shortly after 9/11, referenced a memo circulated in the Pentagon that described how the US would "take out seven countries in five years, starting with Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and, finishing off, Iran." While the timeline was considerably off, each country in the list preceding Iran has largely been destabilized or destroyed, whether through direct warfare, western-backed proxy forces, sanctions and/or famine. Iran has known that the US and Israel would eventually attack, and has prepared accordingly for decades. Ironically, the sanctions imposed by the West have made Iran more independent, self-sufficient and capable of resisting Western aggression.

US-Israeli Strategy: War Crimes & Obfuscation

The US and Israel appear to have overestimated the efficacy of the initial decapitation strikes against Iranian leadership while underestimating Iran's defensive capabilities and national resolve to resist long term western aggression. The US has boasted of "13,000 air and missile strikes" against Iran but has little to show for it. Failing to achieve regime change, unable to destroy Iran's nuclear sites or ballistic missile stockpiles, and with the Strait of Hormuz firmly in Iranian control, the US and Israel resort to the same tactics in Iran as in the genocide against Palestinians: massacring children by bombing elementary schools, blowing up civilian infrastructure such as bridges and targeting aid workers in an effort to force the strait open. Their goal is to inflict mass suffering on the Iranian population in the hope that this causes the people to rise up and turn against their own government. They have publicized through mainstream media networks of Iranian protests rebelling against the Ayatollah, though even cursory investigation via Iranian domestic reporting shows this sentiment is a minority voice in a sea of rage and resolve to maintain Iranian sovereignty. These tactics did not work in Korea, Vietnam, or Palestine and they will not work against Iran. The Trump administration continues to insist they are in control, that the Strait of Hormuz will be open soon, that they are winning, but reality is beginning to break through the lies.

Iranian Strategy: Precision Strikes and Economic Pain

Despite US bluster, Iran's resistance capabilities remain very much intact and have inflicted much greater damage on US-Israeli assets than the West has let on. The truth is emerging as mainstream western outlets such as CNN admit that the majority of the US bases in the region are heavily damaged or unusable and satellite analysis by the Washington Post confirm "Iranian airstrikes have damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at U.S. military sites across the Middle East". The same Washington Post article concedes, "The Iranian attacks were precise. There are no random craters indicating misses." It is quite likely that the number of US-Israeli casualties is far greater than is currently being made public. Iranian strikes have destroyed US assets that were built up over decades at the cost of billions of dollars.

Iran has shattered the illusion that allying with the US and allowing them to build bases in your country provides protection by strategically retaliating against oil and gas infrastructure in US allied countries. Iran's most strategic win has been exerting control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical trade channel in their territorial waters. Blocking 25% of the world's oil and 30% of the world's fertilizer from transiting the Strait is threatening to bring the world economy to its knees. The US has no military recourse to re-open the Strait and has resorted to their own ineffective blockade of the Strait in desperation. The hypocrisy of the US is further exposed as they claim Iran shouldn't be allowed to block the Strait, while at the same time, the US is starving the Cuban people through their own blockade. Iran is exposing the US military as a paper tiger - able to inflict mass misery on a nation's peoples but unable to achieve any meaningful goals. In doing so, Iran is helping to dismantle US imperialism and hegemony.

Consequences

The majority of the US population is against the Iran War with 61% disapproving of striking Iran. Despite this, we have not seen any effective strategic disruption of domestic capital by the American public to stop the conflict. Estimates for the current cost of the war vary widely from $25 billion to upwards of $100 billion. The Trump administration has requested a $1.5 trillion military budget for the next fiscal year while the majority of Americans are subjected to further oppression by capitalists. The money for war always increases -- if the US military is victorious, it justifies their spending and if they suffer defeat, it justifies more money to fix their failings. With massive fertilizer shortages due to the Strait of Hormuz closure coupled with a severe El Niño climate pattern on its way, famine is likely to affect large portions of the world in the near future due to low crop yields. Gas prices at home and abroad will continue to rise precipitously and as well as inflation, propagating further crises. Working class people around the globe cannot sit and bear this misery inflicted on us by the capitalist ruling class. We, the working class, must do more. We must get organized and, like the Iranian people, find out how to strike back against the bourgeoisie and imperialists who put their boots on our necks. No war but class war!